int __stdcall NDK_EGARCH_FORE | ( | double * | pData, |
size_t | nSize, | ||
double * | sigmas, | ||
size_t | nSigmaSize, | ||
double | mu, | ||
const double * | Alphas, | ||
size_t | p, | ||
const double * | Gammas, | ||
size_t | g, | ||
const double * | Betas, | ||
size_t | q, | ||
WORD | nInnovationType, | ||
double | nu, | ||
size_t | nStep, | ||
WORD | retType, | ||
double | alpha, | ||
double * | retVal | ||
) |
Calculates the out-of-sample forecast statistics.
- Returns
- status code of the operation
- Return values
-
NDK_SUCCESS Operation successful NDK_FAILED Operation unsuccessful. See Macros for full list.
- Parameters
[in] pData is the univariate time series data (a one dimensional array). [in] nSize is the number of observations in pData. [in] sigmas is the univariate time series data (a one dimensional array of cells (e.g. rows or columns)) of the last q realized volatilities. [in] nSigmaSize is the number of elements in sigmas. Only the latest q observations are used. [in] mu is the GARCH model conditional mean (i.e. mu). [in] Alphas are the parameters of the ARCH(p) component model (starting with the lowest lag). [in] p is the number of elements in Alphas array [in,out] Gammas are the leverage parameters (starting with the lowest lag). [in] g is the number of elements in Gammas. Must be equal to (p-1). [in] Betas are the parameters of the GARCH(q) component model (starting with the lowest lag). [in] q is the number of elements in Betas array [in] nInnovationType is the probability distribution function of the innovations/residuals (see INNOVATION_TYPE) - INNOVATION_GAUSSIAN Gaussian Distribution (default)
- INNOVATION_TDIST Student's T-Distribution,
- INNOVATION_GED Generalized Error Distribution (GED)
[in] nu is the shape factor (or degrees of freedom) of the innovations/residuals probability distribution function. [in] nStep is the forecast time/horizon (expressed in terms of steps beyond end of the time series). [in] retType is a switch to select the type of value returned - Mean forecast
- Forecast Error
- Volatility term structure
- Confidence interval lower limit
- Confidence interval upper limit (see FORECAST_RETVAL_FUNC)
[in] alpha is the statistical significance level. If missing, a default of 5% is assumed. [out] retVal is the simulated value for the GARCH process.
- Remarks
- The underlying model is described here.
- By definition, the EGARCH_FORE function returns a constant value equal to the model mean (i.e. \mu) for all horizons.
- The time series is homogeneous or equally spaced.
- The time series may include missing values (e.g. #N/A) at either end.
- The number of gamma-coefficients must match the number of alpha-coefficients.
- The number of parameters in the input argument - alpha - determines the order of the ARCH component model.
- The number of parameters in the input argument - beta - determines the order of the GARCH component model.
- Requirements
-
Header SFSDK.H Library SFSDK.LIB DLL SFSDK.DLL
Namespace: | NumXLAPI |
Class: | SFSDK |
Scope: | Public |
Lifetime: | Static |
int NDK_EGARCH_FORE | ( | double[] | pData, |
UIntPtr | nSize, | ||
double | mu, | ||
double[] | Alphas, | ||
UIntPtr | p, | ||
double[] | Gammas, | ||
double[] | Betas, | ||
UIntPtr | q, | ||
short | nInnovationType, | ||
double | nu, | ||
UIntPtr | nStep, | ||
short | retType, | ||
ref double | retVal | ||
) |
Calculates the out-of-sample forecast statistics.
- Return Value
-
a value from NDK_RETCODE enumeration for the status of the call.
NDK_SUCCESS operation successful Error Error Code
- Parameters
[in] pData is the univariate time series data (a one dimensional array). [in] nSize is the number of observations in pData. [in] mu is the GARCH model conditional mean (i.e. mu). [in] Alphas are the parameters of the ARCH(p) component model (starting with the lowest lag). [in] p is the number of elements in Alphas array [in,out] Gammas are the leverage parameters (starting with the lowest lag). [in] g is the number of elements in Gammas. Must be equal to (p-1). [in] Betas are the parameters of the GARCH(q) component model (starting with the lowest lag). [in] q is the number of elements in Betas array [in] nInnovationType is the probability distribution function of the innovations/residuals (see INNOVATION_TYPE) - INNOVATION_GAUSSIAN Gaussian Distribution (default)
- INNOVATION_TDIST Student's T-Distribution,
- INNOVATION_GED Generalized Error Distribution (GED)
[in] nu is the shape factor (or degrees of freedom) of the innovations/residuals probability distribution function. [in] nStep is the forecast time/horizon (expressed in terms of steps beyond end of the time series). [in] retType is a switch to select the type of value returned - Mean forecast
- Forecast Error
- Volatility term structure
- Confidence interval lower limit
- Confidence interval upper limit (see FORECAST_RETVAL_FUNC)
[in] alpha is the statistical significance level. If missing, a default of 5% is assumed. [out] retVal is the simulated value for the GARCH process.
- Remarks
- The underlying model is described here.
- By definition, the EGARCH_FORE function returns a constant value equal to the model mean (i.e. \mu) for all horizons.
- The time series is homogeneous or equally spaced.
- The time series may include missing values (e.g. #N/A) at either end.
- The number of gamma-coefficients must match the number of alpha-coefficients.
- The number of parameters in the input argument - alpha - determines the order of the ARCH component model.
- The number of parameters in the input argument - beta - determines the order of the GARCH component model.
- Exceptions
-
Exception Type Condition None N/A
- Requirements
-
Namespace NumXLAPI Class SFSDK Scope Public Lifetime Static Package NumXLAPI.DLL
- Examples
- References
- * Hamilton, J .D.; Time Series Analysis , Princeton University Press (1994), ISBN 0-691-04289-6
- * Tsay, Ruey S.; Analysis of Financial Time Series John Wiley & SONS. (2005), ISBN 0-471-690740
- * D. S.G. Pollock; Handbook of Time Series Analysis, Signal Processing, and Dynamics; Academic Press; Har/Cdr edition(Nov 17, 1999), ISBN: 125609906
- * Box, Jenkins and Reisel; Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control; John Wiley & SONS.; 4th edition(Jun 30, 2008), ISBN: 470272848