Glossary

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z

A

ACF

Autocorrelation Function or Serial correlation function

ADF

Augmented Dickey–Fuller test

AI

Accrued Interest - interest that has accumulated on a bond since the last interest payment up to the settlement date.

AIC

Akaike information criterion

AR

Auto-regressive model

ARCH

autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity or heteroscedasticity

ARFIMA

Auto Regressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average

ARIMA

Autoregressive integrated moving average model

ARMA

Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) is a stationary stochastic process made up of sums of auto-regressive Excel and moving average components.

ARMAX

Autoregressive moving average model with exogenous inputs

B

BEY

Bond Equivalent Yield

BIC

Bayesian information criterion

BNOC

Basis-net-of carry

BOX-COX

A special case of power transform to stabilize variance and make the data more normal distribution-like.

C

C.I.

Statistical Confidence Interval

CAPM

Capital Asset Pricing Model

CL

Light crude oil (CL) is liquid petroleum that has a low density and flows freely at room temperature.

CLOGLOG

Complementary log-log link function

CME

CME Group Inc. (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) is the world's largest futures exchange company

COB

Close Of Business

CoC

Cost of Carry

CTD

Cheapest to deliver

CUSIP

A 9-character alphanumeric security identifiers that they distribute for all North American securities for the purposes of facilitating clearing and settlement of trades.

D

DESMTH

Holt-Winter's double exponential smoothing function

DFT

Discrete Fourier Transform

DLL

Dynamic-Link Library (computer file)

DV01

Dollar value of a one basis point (i.e. 0.01%) decrease in interest rates.

E

EDF

Empirical distribution function

EGARCH

Exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (EGARCH) model by Nelson (1991)

EIA

U.S. Energy Information Administration

EOD

End-of-day

ETF

Exchange-traded Fund

EULA

End-user license agreement

EWMA

Exponentially weighted moving average

EWV

Exponentially weighted volatility

EWXCF

Exponentially weighted correlation function

F

FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions

FARIMA

Autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average

FFT

Fast Fourier Transform

G

GARCH

Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity

GARCH-M

GARCH-in-mean (GARCH-M) model adds a heteroskedasticity term into the mean equation

GED

General Error Distribution (aka Exponential power distribution)

GLM

Generalized Linear Model

H

HQC

Hannan-Quinn Information Criterion

I

i.i.d

independent identically-distributed random variables

INTG

Time Series Integral Transform or Integral Operator

IQR

Inter quartile range

K

KDE

Kernel density estimate

KPSS

Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test for the null hypothesis that x is level or trend stationary

L

LAG

Lag or backshift operator

LESMTH

Brown's linear exponential smoothing function

LL

Lower limit of a statistical confidence interval

LLF

Log likelihood Function

M

MA

Moving average process

MAD

median absolute deviation or difference

MAPE

Mean absolute percentage error (or deviation) for the forecast and the eventual outcomes

MARD

Mean absolute relative difference

MD

Mean difference

MIT

Market if Touched

MLR

Multiple Linear Regression

MOC

Market On Close

MOO

Market On Opening

N

NaN

Not-A-Number, a special floating point value (similar to infinity) used used in floating point operations.

NAR

Nonlinear autoregressive

NARMA

nonlinear autoregressive–moving-average

NMA

Nonlinear Moving Average

NRE

NumXL runtime environment - a collection of (executables and configuration) file and folders that compose the NumXL runtime environment for custom application.

NYMEX

The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) is a commodity futures exchange owned and operated by CME Group of Chicago.

P

P&L

Profit and Loss

PACF

partial autocorrelation function

PCA

Principal Component Analysis

PCR

Principal Component Regression

R

RMD

relative mean difference

RMNA

Remove missing values function

RMS

root mean square

RMSE

root mean squared error

RP

A Repurchase agreement (also known as a repo or Sale and Repurchase Agreement) allows a borrower to use a financial security as collateral for a cash loan at a fixed rate of interest.

S

SAE

Sum of absolute errors (SAE) between the forecast and the eventual outcomes

SARIMA

Seasonal Autoregressive integrated moving average model

SARIMAX

Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated moving average with exogenous inputs model

SBC

Schwarz Bayesian Criterion

SDK

Software Development Kit

SEATS

Signal Extraction in ARIMA Time Series - is a program (developed by Victor Gomez/Bank of Spain) which estimates and forecasts the trend, seasonal and irregular components of a time series using signal extraction techniques applied to ARIMA models.

SESMTH

Brown's simple exponential smoothing function

SIC

Schwarz Information Criterion

SLR

Simple Linear Regression

SPR

Strategic Petroleum Reserve - an emergency fuel storage of oil maintained by the United States Department of Energy.

SSE

Sum of the squared errors of the prediction function

STDEV

standard deviation (volatility)- is a measure of the variability or dispersion of a population.

T

TESMTH

Winter's triple exponential smoothing function

TRAMO

Time Series Regression with ARIMA Noise, Missing Observations and Outliers - is a companion program (SEATS/TRAMO) for estimation and forecasting of regression models with ARIMA errors and missing values. It is used to preadjust a series, which will then be seasonally adjusted by SEATS.

U

UL

Upper limit (UL) of a statistical confidence interval

V

VAR

Vector Auto-regression

VARIMA

Vector ARIMA

VARMA

Vector Auto Regression Moving-Average

VBA

Visual Basic for Applications

W

WMA

Weighted moving average

WTI

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), also known as Texas light sweet, is a grade of crude oil used as a benchmark in oil pricing.

X

X-11

A Software package developed by US Census bureau for seasonal adjustment in 1965. The X11 is non-model based, and uses filters to seasonally adjust data and estimate the components of a time series.

X-11-ARIMA

A software package originally developed by Statistics Canada in 1980 and updated in 1988 to X11ARIMA88, uses Box Jenkins AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models to extend a time series. Essentially, the use of ARIMA modelling on the original series helps reduce revisions in the seasonally adjusted series so that the effect of the end-point problem is reduced.

X-12

X-12 or X-12-ARIMA is the U.S. Census Bureau's software package for seasonal adjustment.

X-12-ARIMA

A software package developed by the U.S. Census Bureau for seasonal adjustment. The X-12-ARIMA is the successor to X-11-ARIMA.

X-13ARIMA-SEATS

Combines the X-12-ARIMA package, developed at the US census bureau, with an implementation of the SEATS package for model-based seasonal adjustment, developed by Bank of Spain

X12-ARIMA

X-12-ARIMA (Synonym to X12-ARIMA) was the U.S. Census Bureau's software package for seasonal adjustment.

XCF

cross correlation function

XKURT

Excess kurtosis